Good afternoon everyone,
We are up 45 units to start the season, and have a solid slate tonight.
The Kraken will look to rebound on the road against the Senators who will be without Brady Tkachuk for at least a month. The Sens have lost three in a row and were embarrassed by the lowly Sabres last night. Grubauer and Ullmark will be in net tonight so I am swayed on how I originally leaned. I am down on Ottawa’s offense without Brady, but with Gru in net, it bumps them. I like Seattle’s offense tonight, but Ullmark being in net bumps them down for me. I could see this game going over 5.5 with Gru in net, but I’m not confident enough to lay -150 to get there, and I don’t want to play 6 to need 7 goals to win. Let’s roll through the rest of the slate and target more approachable games. If nothing more stands out we can come back to this one.
The Avs will be a hammer tonight. They missed hitting their total against the Sabres having a 3-1 lead in the third. The pregame line of 3 is -200… I love 3, but -200 is steep. We run this risk of trying to catch 2.5 live but we would need a slow start to get it which goes against the gameflow we’re looking for. Colorado is in a matchup where they could put up 5 or more. I’m going to start with the pregame line of 3.5 for only -115, splash 4.5 +195, and 5 +333, and see if we’re able to catch 2.5 live. Colorado should completely out play and out pace the Jackets, so this will be up to them to show up tonight. Elvis Merzlikin’s has given up 18 goals in his last three starts against the Av’s so we’re hoping that trend continues tonight.
Winnipeg lost 4 in a row against the Flyers before winning 4-1 in their last matchup last season. They’re on an east coast trip and beat the Isles on Monday. I’d recommend being careful here. Winnipeg should run through them but the -140 line is almost too good to be true. If you play it and hit, lucky you, it’s extremely cheap. I won’t be playing it because their matchup history suggests it’s a trap. The Flyers have played well to start the season, and Rick Tocchet as the new head coach is a severe locker room upgrade and change in attitude for this team. I also love the addition of Trevor Zegras to this team. If you didn’t see the highlight of Sean Courturier at the faceoff line against the Panthers I believe it was in a scrum, try and find it. This Flyers team looks determined to excel and play tough.
I’ve had enough action with the Preds this season so far so I’m staying away from this matchup with Montreal. It should be boring.
The Devils have an insanely tough schedule to start the year so my plan is to lay off this stretch against the top opponents and then hammer them when the schedule gets lighter. If they’re still healthy they should smash.
The Rangers will make us some money on the road this year. They’ve been shut out three times in a row to open the season at home and I believe it’s suppressing their away totals. We hit them against the Penguins easily, and now they head to Toronto to face a team coming off a massive win for us. I expect Toronto to get caught here defensively.
The Islanders may not win a game all season. This game could start slow allowing us to grab Edmonton at 2.5. With David Rittich in net for the Isles I expect a very rough game. Can they catch Edmonton at home for their first win? Sure, why not. I’ll be playing Edmonton and dealing with the what if later.
Official Plays:
- 7 pm Colorado TT over 3.5 -115: 3u
- 7 pm Colorado TT over 4.5 +195: 1u
- 7 pm Colorado TT over 5 +333: 1u
- 7 pm Rangers over 2.5 -140: 2u
- 7 pm Edmonton over 3.5 -110: 2u
